Showing posts with label markets. Show all posts
Showing posts with label markets. Show all posts

Monday, July 16, 2012

LIBOR Ought to Nail Deregulation's Coffin Shut

If our world were ruled by rational, informed decisions, the LIBOR scandal would serve as the final nail that would forever end the plague of deregulation fervor and the pestilence of laissez-faire myopia. It won't be. Most true believers will never give up that push towards more and more laissez-faire, no matter how clearly it's shown to destabilize our systems of commerce. Wave ream after ream of documented business and finance train-wrecks under their under their noses and it they'll be unconvinced. They'll still rant and rave that we need less govt just as they've been doing for decades.

"In the early 1990s, the Fed suspended its surveillance of primary dealers, another example of Alan Greenspan's laissez-faire approach to regulation. Since then, there has been "failure after failure" among their ranks, Kotok notes, citing Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch, MF Global, Countrywide, and now Barclays."
- Aaron Task in "Why the LIBOR Scandal Matters: ‘Destruction of Confidence to the Nth Degree’"

Even now in the wake of LIBOR, candidate Romney's "Day One, Job One" summary lists elimination of regulations as one of the five executive orders he wants to carry out on day one of a Romney term.

Our markets have proven time and again that we need a mix of market choices with government oversight. The ideal balance may vary from market to market, but in any significant market -- one on which much of the economy depends -- we need stabilizers to improve predictability of returns on investment. And we need oversight in order to not only protect the consumer but to protect the honest businessman from dishonest competitors. In an arena of sensible regulation, the honest businessman can proudly say "my company holds to good business practices and I proudly work with government regulators to confirm that to the public." And he can rest more soundly at night knowing that his competitors won't undercut his otherwise stable business with shady, risky moves that a long-term outlook would abhor. Or at least that they'll have significant risk of being caught and called out if they do. And that businessman's potential investors can better expect a reliable, predictable return year after year rather than a sudden flop into insolvency from cutting corners. Business thrives under sensible regulation that keeps it lined up with good business practices.

Yet this is a truth that runs contrary to laissez-faire dogma. And we can not expect them to give up their notions. The best we can hope for is that maybe these scandals might help to show enough of the public that deregulationists hold to a debunked economic faith and that their doctrines should be no less a subject of mockery than Branch Davidians or Flat Earthers.

Friday, July 15, 2011

The Keynesian Home-owner vs the Austrian School Home-owner

The Austrian School of economics would have us leave our hands off the economy. Get govt out of the picture, they say, and everything will tend to itself better. Let's explore what that would mean from the perspective of a home-owner's lawn.

Under laissez-fair lawn care, no amendments could be applied to the lawn, no fertilizer and not even water. Should there be a drought, the grass will be left to brown. There would certainly be some benefit to this in areas with a water supply shortage, but it could lead to soil erosion if the grass is not replaced quickly enough. If the Austrian School home-owner had pets that left "presents" on the lawn, that raw manure would be left to sit and create patches of dead grass. Through natural secondary succession, soon most of the grass will be replaced by shrubs and trees. Eventually it will become a forest instead of a lawn. While that's great for harvesting timber and for woodland habitat, it's not much good for having space for kids to play in the grass, for a place to set up your grill for the 4th of July (as overhanging trees would be dangerous), or for much else of what most of us want to have and do right outside our houses.

The Keynesian neighbor, on the other hand, does not share the Austrian's faith that a hands off approach is always best no matter what's going on with the lawn. Instead, the Keynesian will consider whether there's some way to help the lawn stay a nice, green area in which to grill, read, work, or play. Depending on his experience -- or means -- the Keynesian will start with some test to determine the health of the lawn. It might be just looking at whether the grass is green and the soil is dark. Or it might involve testing pH and nitrogen levels. When the soil lacks nutrients, opinions will vary among such home-owners whether it is best to use organic fertilizer or manufactured amendments. But most will have studied the options at least enough to know to avoid raw manure, as that will tend to burn the grass. Some will find that all they need to do is spread some extra seed -- perhaps drought resistant varieties -- where the grass is looking a little thin. Some will worry about every little weed, while others will be content to enjoy the dandelion blooms as long as the lawn is more grass than weed. While the occasional such home-owner will experience setbacks, extremely few end up doing their lawn more harm than good. Most will end up with a lush, enjoyable, robust lawn on which their kids may play and they may eat their hot-dogs and hamburgers in satisfaction. Some will even improve their landscape enough to raise the market value of their house.

"But wait,", you might say, "what's this have to do with economics? After all the economy isn't just a lawn." Yes, and there have been metaphors that shot and missed at capturing economic truth. But consider: life lacks perfection. If the base, natural state of humanity were a perfectly functioning economy without government, governments would never have been able to compete with the raw anarchy before that first tiny government. That first bumbling govt meant the group that formed it obviously out-competed neighboring anarchism. Govt is our means to seek the greener economy in which we wish to see our children play. We develop rules that help us succeed.

Beyond that, aside from its competitive ability, govt is our means to push our economy to look the way we want. Without govt, what happens? Some industries left on their own will do the right thing because they're run by someone with a sound moral compass. Others are run by those who care only about wealth. And these -- absent govt -- will do things like Sinclair described in The Jungle and others have recorded elsewhere of the dark days of unfettered industry. Absent child-labor laws, there would again be five year old girls working 12+ hour days in sweat shops. Absent work-safety laws, those same kids would once again very rarely make it to adulthood without being mangled in a workplace accident. Absent food and drug regulation, we would once again have reason to expect not just the occasional problem but rather frequent death and debilitation from our food and the snake-oil that would pass for medicine. These are the dark and dangerous plants that would invade our lawn if it were not for govt regulation and oversight. Were the Austrian School to fully succeed in their nightmarish dream of entirely unfettered markets, we would likely soon see our economic lawn overwhelmed by poison ivy and thorny trees. If we're to have a place to grill safely and for our children to play on fields of grass, we need to tend our lawns.

And as a bonus, it may well increase our property value.